Argentina: Should you go All In on the Holders in your World Cup Predictor?

Before you commit to your picks in the World Cup predictor game, it’s best to look at the form of the favourites to see whether it’s best to pick the obvious winners or not. Starting with the reigning champions is always a good place to begin, so should you go all in on Argentina to retain their title in the US this summer? History suggests it might be a struggle to win back-to-back titles, but with the form they are in, the strong squad, the same management team that won it last time, and the historical data that suggests South American teams do well in the heat, it might be time for a repeat of the success in Qatar 2022.

The case for the champions: Why stick with Argentina? 

Analysing the risk versus reward is key to a successful tilt at the World Cup predictor tournament. Argentina are World Cup favourites for a reason; they have the experience of winning in recent times. They not only won the last World Cup, but also the Copa America in 2021 and 2024, and the Finalissima (a one-off game between the winners of the Copa America and the European Championships), beating Italy 3-0 at Wembley in 2022. In 2025, Argentina played 9 games, won 7, drew 1, and lost only 1 match. That was against second place in the South American World Cup Qualifying league table, Ecuador, who they finished 9 points ahead of, in the last game, that didn’t matter.

Lionel Scaloni has built the perfect Argentina squad depth, a mentality of winning throughout the squad, and you also can’t discount the ‘Messi effect’. Even at a grand old age, the GOAT is still the GOAT, and playing in the MLS means this is almost a home tournament for the Little Flea. When you throw in the experience through the spine of the team of Emi Martinez, Martinez and Romero in defence, Mac Allister and Fernandez in midfield, and a supporting cast of Alvarez and Lautaro with Messi, it’s hard to look past the champions to do it all over again. For reliable predictions, choosing Argentina is a solid starting point.

The ’Champions Curse’: A warning for predictors

It’s easy to look at all that and think that you’ll choose a 3-0 win for Argentina in every game at the World Cup, but it isn’t always that straightforward. World Cup trends and historical football stats actually show that there might be a defending champions curse! Think back to how bad France played at the 2002 World Cup, going out in the groups, the sight of Manuel Neuer for Germany at the wrong end of the pitch as the Republic of Korea knocked them out with a late counter-attacking goal, or how poorly defending champions Spain played in 2014. Despite this, France did buck the trend at the last World Cup, beaten in the final by Argentina.

Analysing the path to the final

Argentina’s group stage draw was a decent one for the champions, but do they have an ‘easy path to the final’? Beginning with group stage matches against Algeria, Austria, and Jordan, you would fancy them to win the group, but they’ll know not to be complacent. After all, Argentina did lose to Saudi Arabia at the last World Cup, shocking them into action for the rest of the tournament. If Argentina win Group J and other groups follow suit, they can expect a draw that takes in Uruguay in the last-32, against potentially Belgium or USA in the last-16, a matchup against Ronaldo’s Portugal in the quarter-finals, England or Brazil in the semi-finals, and a final against France again, or maybe Spain. There are a lot of matches to play before we get there, though!

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